Chechnya crisis - What's the solution?

[Exilibur]

wow, nice post, wrecks, but please, pleeeease put spaces in your posts, it makes it so much more readable

Well, as nietzche concludes: all mans actions are based on a desire for power... (Just to mention it and seem clever )

As i understand the first part of your post, if Putin gives Chechnya freedom and liberty, he looses a tiny bit of his power, so he's not gonna do that...

That pretty much leaves this conflict unsolvable.

You don't think that there's any solutions to this problem?

If no, then what do you think will happen in the future?
Will the terror just escalate like it's doing right now?

sounds pretty depressing

The second part of your post is very interesting, and i agree with you a lot of the places, but one think makes me wonder.

The spanish president blamed the attack on ETA because he had a point in doing that. Now why doesn't Putin point the finger at Chechnyan terrorists?
what exactly does he win by pointing the finger at islamic groups instead?
Doesn't he need a reason to send more armed troops down there?
I agree with you that he is pointing a al queda though, but why?

[>BKA< T Wrecks]

Because even admitting that there is a rebellion going on in Chechnya -still, after so many years- would prove his claims that Chechnya is under control and the military operation has been a success to be wrong. It's easy for him to justify a military operation which has been intensified with the pretext of fighting Chechen terrorism on Russia if acts of terrorism committed by Chechen rebels have disappeared.

Then he can say "ok, folks: We sent even more troops down there, but as you can see, the situation is under control now, and those Chechens are no longer a threat, thanks to me. Your sons are there for a good purpose, i.e. to solve the Chechnya conflict by military means."

But all of a sudden, Chechen terrorism escalates - now how does that look? Wouldn't mothers, fathers, wives & girlfriends say: "Hey, Mr. President! You said that our men were risking their lives in Chechnya for a good reason and that everything is under control now. But it seems like your oh-so-glorious military operation was a total failure - we don't see less terror, we see more! The situation seems to be further away from being under control than ever!" (remember PMB's questions, btw!)

What's the solution? The ongoing rebellion must be denied, and at the same time some legitimation for giving even more power to the military and the secret service, as well as even more severe censorship of the media (which is always good if you want to stay in power) must be found - the perfect role for evil Al-Qaeda terrorists!

But as I said, I fear that by calling them he might get what he's calling for eventually, just like it happened in Iraq.


The solution... yes, that's difficult. What's most difficult is that every step forwards into chaos and terrorism requires at least five steps backwards to make it undone, and not even on a linear scale... the efforts needed to reverse the trend are increasing with every step that's made in the wrong direction. Look at Northern Ireland: The situation there is still tense, and that's centuries after the English started to settle there and fight the Irish, starting this conflict that lasts till today.

Some factors that favour a relative (albeit fragile) peace there are moderate living standards (no hunger, no dramatic poverty), that it's right in the middle of Europe, where many countries have a watchful eye on it, and that it's being reigned by a kind of democratic government and even has some particular regional privileges that enable both sides to cope with conflicts in a peaceful way. There are moderate leaders like Gerry Adams who are tolerated by the English government. And last but not least, the educational standard is fairly good.

In Chechnya, how much of this applies? But Putin will not be in power forever, and who says that his laws (which lead more and more towards a dictatorship with democratic façade) will not be reversed one day by a future government? After all, it's the first time for centuries that Russia has a "democratic" constitution... the first time Germany had one lasted roughly 20 years and ended in WW II... and Germany is right in the middle of Europe and a very "governable" country... it's small in size, has a good infrastructure and pretty nice living standards. Besides, it has no long tradition as a unified (and thus, centralized) country - unlike Russia! Thus, the odds that our second democratic experience will be longer and more peaceful are good. But in Russia, things are a bit different, especially in the remote provinces. Russia is hard to govern, and its history is one of long centralism and autoritary regimes. I don't expect any significant progress during Putin's presidency, and even afterwards, it might take decades.

Peace is slow... you can push it a bit, of course. But so far the West remains rather silent... which brings us back to the pipeline thing: Where do these pipelines pump their oil? Bingo. (again, see Pierre's remarks)

Oh, btw - enough spaces?

[botmeister]

Guys, the very best forum I found for discussing politics and news stories (and a whole lot more) is here:

http://www.libertyforum.org

You can speak your mind freely and won't ever get banned. The only rules are that you cannot try and sell things, and you cannot threaten people with violence.

There's an entire spectrum of points of view, including Auxious-like people if you want to engage in debating with that type. Remember no banning, so if you want to tell some ignorant redneck to jump in a lake (and much worse of course) you can do so freely.

Enjoy

[>BKA< T Wrecks]

Hmmm... thanks for the offer, but people like this Auxois guy (or whatever he was called, whoever that might be) are exactly what I'm NOT looking for. Being able to tell some narrow-minded redneck to go soak his head is not what I would enjoy. I enjoy discussing things without narrow-minded rednecks spoiling everything. The problem is that with this kind of people, you just can't discuss. It's pointless; they don't accept any arguments, they would never even consider changing their opinion, and they don't accept any opinion that differs from theirs because they think that they're the only ones who are right. If you prove them wrong in each and every point, what do you gain? Nothing, because they just wouldn't accept it anyway. Even if you could show them the truth and prove it - they would just deny it and continue.

I guess I prefer an occasional political topic discussed among a reasonable non-political community over 100% political topics in a spiteful, moron-infected and aggressive atmosphere...

[stefanhendriks]

amen..

heh

[MarD]

Heyyo,

Yeah, I'm glad some places on the net are still sacred from forum flamers, or I'd have to spend my whole time being cocky when I win at www.pokerroom.com Lol, I'm just cocky when I start stuff, like, in halo I'mma pretty nice guy now, I do lots of complimenting, it's only a matter of time ti'll it's so with pokerroom.

One of these days, I'mma play for real money, n' start being able to pay for my own car through this.. oh yes, someday.

[Exilibur]

haha yaeh that was pretty much as spacey as i could ever want

Democracy takes time... that's very true. I liked your comparison with germany... I've just been through the same era in danish history (with two wars against germany btw ) and it's pretty much the same story...

What's important is that democracy comes from the inside... cause then, even when it fails the first time, there will still be a desire...

The problem here is that the Chechnens don't want russian democracy... they want Chechnyan democracy.

The sad thing about this is that even if a second democracit expirence will be more peaceful, we still have to wait until that day...

[Pierre-Marie Baty]

Originally Posted by Exilibur

What's important is that democracy comes from the inside...

Yup.
Bombarding people to democracy. Haha. Hello George ???

[-=RAV=-AdrianShephard]

Originally Posted by Pierre-Marie Baty

Yup.
Bombarding people to democracy. Haha. Hello George ???

i wish we would do that more often

[botmeister]

Originally Posted by >BKA< T Wrecks

Hmmm... thanks for the offer, but people like this Auxois guy (or whatever he was called, whoever that might be) are exactly what I'm NOT looking for.

Don't worry, the rednecks are in a minority. Most of the people at LF are great to talk to and it is the best place to talk politics and get educated about what's really going on that I've seen yet.